Tehran

Polymarket operates on a public blockchain, meaning every trade, position, and wallet movement is fully transparent, yet the identities behind those wallets remain anonymous. That anonymity is precisely what makes the data analytically interesting. Blockchain investigators at Bubble Maps, recently profiled by 60 Minutes, identified nine accounts that collectively earned $2.4 million betting on U.S. military events with a 98% win rate, a statistical profile that points to something beyond luck. Individuals have also been arrested in Israel for allegedly using classified information to trade on Polymarket contracts predicting when Israel would strike Iran. Whether the edge comes from genuine insider access or exceptional analytical skill, the pattern is the same: high-conviction money moves before events do.

That signal is what we track here. Recent academic research across 588 million Polymarket trades found that the top 1% of users capture 76.5% of all profits, a level of concentration that makes those accounts worth watching. We monitor where that capital is positioned on Iran conflict markets: is it aligned with broader crowd sentiment, or diverging from it? When the top wallets and the crowd disagree, that divergence is itself an intelligence signal. Combined with Griffinfly's open-source reporting and regional desk analysis, Polymarket data gives our subscribers a real-time read on where the top wallets and the general public believes events are heading.

Sources

• Who Wins and Who Loses In Prediction Markets? Evidence from Polymarket (SSRN)
• 60 Minutes: Bubble Maps investigates Polymarket trading patterns (CBS)